The modeling of retrospective dynamic series of schoolchildren’s morbid affection: first results

O. Svetlova

B. Khmelnytsky National University of Cherkasy
81, Shevchenko Bld, Cherkasy 18031, Ukraine

We analyzed the data of morbid affection of urban schoolchildren in the central region of Ukraine for the last 28 years. The study indicated a significant increase in morbid affection of schoolchildren, which has more than doubled from 425,98±3,45 ‰ in 1986 to 857,60±2,47 ‰ in 2013. Retrospective analysis of children’s health showed that this increase, pathological injury îf students occurred mainly by increasing the proportion of these diseases and pathological conditions: diseases and functional disorders of the musculoskeletal system; digestive diseases; diseases of the nervous system; diseases of the eye and adnexa; cardiovascular diseases; diseases of the respiratory system; diseases of the endocrine system, eating disorders and metabolic disorders. Based on the series of children morbidity we based on the data, the functional models have been done for the prediction of modern schoolchildren’s morbid affection and the evaluation of this forecasting method has been held. The obtained results show a very high probability forecast, which allows us to predict the nature and dynamics of morbidity disciples today, which makes it possible to apply the model of purposeful in planning recreational activities for children.

Keywords: pupils, morbid affection, proportion, forecasting, functional model

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